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Ten conjecture of the electronics industry in 2013

2012 downturn, but also the lack of change in a year, the new electronic products come forth in large numbers, but we see an apple or an apple, Samsung or Samsung, while DELL DELL or HP is still HP, major industry trends in 2012 years and there is no substantial change, but a continuation of many investment mainline only mobile electronics industry chain throughout the year, and really create value.
    Looking ahead to 2013, we believe that industrial demand will show moderate growth, and the relationship between supply and demand will get a modest improvement in the overall. Recent industry leading indicators show that the needs of the industry as a whole will not be fast growth in 2013 is still relatively faster mobile electronics manufacturing, the PC may be growth on a low base in 2012. For investment due to the economy will rebound, in which the search field to select investments rebound.
    2013 industry differentiation should be continued, to be honest, I do not know GEM at the end of a large non-lifting of the ban, and whether it will lead to valuation plates turmoil, however, opportunities always favor the prepared, "Ten conjecture" It is the applicant million electronic team conjecture on important industry trends in 2013, since it is a guess, is for research purposes only reference rather than directly proposal.
    Conjecture: Apple's entry into the mid-market
Along with New the iPad, iPhone5 launch Apple in the high-end consumer electronics market has accounted for a higher share of the market, the direction of the future growth of the business in addition to the new products, it is difficult to promote business growth more than the market average. At the same time, as strive to turn to cloud computing, cloud services company Apple, get more customers resources, better bind customers is an important goal of future development, so the introduction of the market for low-end consumer electronics products, the Apple brand influence sinking further, to master more customers Apple is likely to choose the direction. At this year's launch of the iPad Mini is Apple's first in this direction first attempt for the educational market, the positive development of children and adolescents with potential for future consumption market, Apple brand loyalty from a minor stage of culture.
    In 2013, Apple may launch the face of low-end smartphone market? The hope is also expected to be. If it is for the supply chain in the Mainland should be good news. In addition, we will see that the overall popularity of smart phones will shift to the low-end market. MediaTek's sales in the second half of the year has been strong growth can be seen as evidence The sunlord significantly benefit the the future the Zhuo wing system upgrade noteworthy.
    Conjecture II: Ultra-Win promote replacement wave
    Often usher in 4-5 years of PC lifecycle replacement tide, but as the global economic downturn led to corporate deferred replacement, new consumer electronics products such as smart phones, tablet PCs also divert a part of funds for replacement demand, while the PC industry in recent years, the lack of a breakthrough innovative products, Win Vista and Win7 experience is limited, making the overall PC market growth is weak.
    2011 Intel pushing Ultrabook concept, but due to component manufacturers and software vendors have not yet been adequately prepare, the Ultrabook product pricing is still too high by the end of 2012, officially released Win8 take at least October 25, the current development of Ultra-Win below expectations. However, as the industry gradually mature, the direction toward thin and light notebook products will not change, in 2013, Win8 software ecosystem will complete the transition to the touch manipulation accumulation Ultrabook chip Haswell Ultimate Edition Intel strategic blueprint will also be available at the same time The other component makers with the scale of production, the cost is expected to be further diluted, Ultra-Win status quo will also promote the development of lower-than-expected Intel determined none other manufacturers to cut prices, and promote the development of the industry. Therefore, we guess Ultra-Win may cause irritation to the arrival of the 2013 replacement wave.
    Conjecture: capital open, the Taiwan plant investment may become hot
    The mainland electronics industry for many years development, with the enterprises listed gradually increased and the electronics company's price-earnings ratio of A-share advantage, promoting the combination of the domestic electronics industry and the financial capital, making the mainland listed companies exist to snack, strong to weak swallow leaps and bounds opportunity to acquire quality enterprises in Taiwan, especially those with unique products, technology advantages invisible champions, product line expansion and accumulation of high-tech.
    The harsh environment of industrial operations, the status quo of Taiwan's capital market financing difficulties seriously hampered the development of Taiwan's IT industry, forced by this pressure, Taiwan has gradually liberalized the investment restrictions of the mainland capital of Taiwan LED panel enterprises, precisely because so three safety optoelectronics and BOE and other manufacturers continued rumors. We suspect that 2013 will be more similar to the legislative hearing the example of the acquisition of associated Tao, concern with the background of the Taiwan-based company, USI Electronics.
    Conjecture 4: LED commercial lighting start to accelerate, industry accelerated differentiation
    According to the LED Engineering Analysis, domestic LED lighting industry in the first half of 2012, an increase of 36% in full-year forecast of 40% growth. In 2013, Europe and North America are touched economy critical point, domestic only Guangdong public lighting needs release will be expected to reach 150 billion, we expect the LED will grow faster. However, for investors, the more profound memory LED continue to decline in gross margin, lower-than-expected performance, the stock is mediocre.
    The chip will bigger Hengqiang the. The gap between the chip technology in the field of rendering the trend of reduced competition in the future will be large-scale and fine ability to control costs. Three safety photoelectric been the subject of controversy, but the final products have to contend with the level of first-tier manufacturers in Taiwan, and the future development path is a low-cost incorporation operators difficult chip capacity. In addition, BDO Runda concern packaging factory to evaluate the performance of its products close to the level of the Taiwan plant, process route may be more cost advantage. Chip facing the entire LED demand, the overall growth rate should be unhappy, spare capacity will continue to gradually open the chip sector, the next boom will slow recovery. Encapsulation technology, scale fight. This should be a relatively low barriers LED industry chain field. The package still needs to face the future prices continue to decline brought pressure Fortunately, recent international manufacturers package orders willingness to transfer to the mainland, excellent company will have better opportunities for the expansion, we believe that the best technical ability of Swiss abundance photoelectric and more promising Hongli Opto-electronic, especially Ruifeng as professional packaging plants more vulnerable to downstream customers of all ages. Applications recount falsification from the performance to the performance confirmed. Most of the first half of the lighting business of the Company did not meet the industry growth rate of 36%, and the sun lighting the super-normal growth, because it is both a cost advantage and channel advantages, this is the long-term competitiveness of the strongest and most reliable company . Ground on photovoltaic will become the fastest growing company in the field of LED growth in 2013, the biggest beneficiaries of the policies of Guangdong. Chau Ming technology actively layout lighting business, greater flexibility is also of concern.
    Conjecture: panel industry supply and demand improvement, is expected to become the Danian
    Limited incremental demand, improve the relationship between supply and demand. New capacity rarely, Samsung in Suzhou kink, may miscarriage LCD production line; the LG in Guangzhou 8.5G possible relocation way. TFT panel OXIDE technology upgrades, capacity may occur losses (in addition to the work stoppage during the capacity loss, the LCD transformation to become OLED production can usually 1/3 of the production can loss), demand-side Apple the 2014 completion of Wang LTPS and OXIDE technology of transformation . Conversion of high-generation line of small size products, will lead to low-generation production lines capacity exits also appear capacity loss. DisplaySearch latest forecast, the relationship between supply and demand in the second half of 2013 even better than 2010. The BOE competitive par Taiwan factory, and profitability will be greatly increased, due to the economic performance inflection point in the third quarter of 2012.
   The material suppliers ushered opportunities. Domestic panel makers capacity large release, and opportunities to give local material suppliers. Gems and rainbow glass substrates have been mass production supply glass substrate, Rainbow 6 is about to have the production capacity, and precious stones in yield advantage.
   Guess six: Apple industry chain to Samsung, the mainland blase
   Threat with Apple Samsung Apple Samsung supply components dependent haunts Apple CEO Cook pain, but also his determination to go to Samsung of the main reasons for the supply chain. In the the Samsung supply of major components, the value from display and IC, batteries.
   We guess LGD, Sharp, Japan Display even AUO, Chi Mei procurement in 2013, Apple will be further increased to reduce the display of Samsung SMD procurement. TSMC is expected to win orders for Apple IC foundry batteries from SONY, LG Chemical, ATL, Sanyo and other companies to complete alternative to Samsung. Accompanied in many fields to Samsung of Apple industry chain will be more turned to Japan, Taiwan, and mainland China, will also mean supporting the procurement of components will open the door to mainland enterprises, enterprises in the mainland in 2013 than it The 2012 has a higher cut into Apple's development opportunities, perhaps 2013 will appear in Apple's supplier list A shares superiors company Apple concept in 2013, there will be more practical investment targets.
   Apple officially released iTV guess Seven:
   TV is the only Apple products have not really launched within the framework of both consumer electronics, the previous Apple TV set-top boxes like this market a test the water. With the acquisition of Hon Hai Sharp, improve the layout of the supply chain in the TV industry, the industry chain has been well greet iTV ready in 2012, several companies provide for the Apple iTV parts components for the product development and testing.
   We guess, 2013, Apple will officially involved in the television industry to launch iTV product Apple cloud platform last piece of the puzzle, completed the full occupation of iOS on the consumer's life. Of course, due to the limitations of the industrial policy, the continent most users will not be able to experience iTV fun to use.
   Guess eight: Google Glass theme emerges
   Google Glass is a very futuristic design. Combined with micro-projector, voice technology, the future will become a true personal information terminal, completed to supplement or even replace the 2013 prototype production for developers to use, according to Google planning path, both mobile intelligent terminal, 2014 the production of consumer-grade products. This is a killer application potential products, involve crystal optical the GoerTek.
   Conjecture the nine: OGS, Film touch a great deal of diversity in the large-size
   Win8 will fully support touch operation, with the combination of touch with traditional ways to gradually shift the software ecosystem, mainstream big screen consumer electronics products notebook and PC, as well as one machine (AIO) computer, touch technology penetration in improved rapidly in 2013, will also stimulate the touch screen industry usher in the outbreak of a new round of demand due to poor production of primary yield, as well as a large number of production capacity in steering the process, even to the third quarter of the first half of 2013, could face a large-size touch screen the supply tight state scale production capacity of large-size touch screen enterprise will get a good return. Path of large size, OGS technology is relatively mature, Film technology has better efficiency advantages, cost beneficial product price close to the people, therefore we guess 2013, OGS and Film will be a great deal of diversity in the field of large-size touch screen favor of the different positioning of the product, to usher in the common development of the industry.
    To guess ten: Low concentration high efficiency crystalline silicon cells significantly reduce the cost of solar
Solar sale tariff parity era has arrived, Central shares the SUNPOWER are advancing cooperation projects in the hope that further significant decline in the cost of solar, bringing them closer to the level of feed-in tariff. The principle of this technology is a high-efficiency battery + low condenser, which average conversion efficiency of 24% of the back electrode battery piece is provided by sunpower will the Central CFZ Czochralski silicon zone melting (N-type) production, and 7 magnification condenser is cost-reflective trough that reflect sunlight onto the battery slice, which significantly reduce the battery chip consumption, thereby reducing system cost. This technology is changing the industrial pattern.